Bill Gross 2012投資展望

Bill Gross 的2012年1月份投資展望認為新常態的結果已向兩極化發展，由常態分佈變成雙峰分佈。分佈圖的左峰是policy delevering，右峰是central bank inflationary expansion。更重要是兩邊的長尾的機會率會增加。這觀點其實並不新鮮，亦是未來幾年投資者要面對的形勢。新常態的發展方向看似是二選一，不過現實的方向卻可能是先向左走，再向右走。在去槓桿過程中，投資者情緒則會不時在中央銀行救市的期盼與失望之間振盪，金融市場定會愈趨波動。

這是展望的部份要點和投資策略

• The New Normal appears to be morphing into a world of fat-tailed, almost bimodal outcomes .
• A new duality : the fat left-tailed possibility of unforeseen policy delevering OR the fat right-tailed possibility of central bank inflationary expansion.
• Until the outcome becomes clear, investors should consider ways to hedge their bets, including:
• Bonds :
• maximizing durations, U.S. Treasury bonds that may potentially offer capital gains, long-term Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS), high quality corporates and senior bank debt, and select U.S. municipal bonds.
• Stocks:
• should favor higher yielding companies in sectors with relatively stable cash flows : Electric utilities, big pharma and multinationals
• Commodities :
• could go either way depending on the tails but scarcity and geopolitical considerations (Iran) favor a positive tilt. Gold at $1550 seems pricey but it has upward legs if QEs continue
• Currencies:
• The dollar is king with a left-tailed delevering scenario – pauper in a right-tailed global reflationary expansion.